What’s the PlayStation 5 going to be like? Honestly I don’t know. However, before you click the back button, bear with me a second. I’m not going to pretend that I’ve got some crystal ball or give any credence to usual rumour mill of rubbish that surrounds such a device. Instead I’m going to simply make a few predictions about the PS5 backed up by some sound reasoning. Still here, good.
There are three key areas to consider when looking ahead at a next-generation console launch, based on my efforts to predict these things over the last three console generations.
Looking at current trends in gaming
Working out how powerful the hardware will be by release date
Factor in Sony’s preferences as a large electronics corporation
Based on that I’ve come up with a short list of features that I think will feature in the new console.
Release date: Late 2019
Why? OK, it’s not a feature per se but it’s a very important aspect of any console: when’s the thing coming out. Sony is in the lead in the current generation, with most estimates putting it comfortably ahead of its Microsoft rival. That means the company will be in no hurry to go for the expensive and risky process of transitioning from the PS4 to the PS5.
Expensive and Risky? You might well ask. Yes, all the big bucks from a console are made in the tail end years, not from that initial launch period of £350 consoles. As the tech gets older, it gets cheaper to manufacture and the installed user base grows exponentially worldwide, making those last few big hits, such as GTA 5 and The Last of Us, massive cash cows.
The risk comes in any hardware transition, just look at how well established Xbox 360 was (especially in the UK and US) but how quickly that advantage evaporated when Microsoft made errors, both in marketing and hardware, with the Xbox One. Atari, Sega, Nintendo … many massive players have lost their console crowns over the decades.
That said, delaying too long gives the opposition a clear shot at stealing away your consumers before you’re in the game, so Sony will need to have at least shown its hand by the time the next Xbox is launched. Based on previous console generations then I’d go for a 2019 release date, so expect lots of rumours in 2018, with a first announcement late in that year, leading up to a hardware unveiling in early 2019 and launch in late 2019.
Storage: Two console strategy
Why? With the recent finalisation of the 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray specification, we're expecting to see discs and players for the new format in the UK this year. Presuming the format takes off, it should be well-established by 2019, and with Sony Pictures among the first onboard to release movies for the new format, it would make sense for the PS5 to support it.
Sony may have got stung by trying to shoehorn a Blu-ray drive into the PS3 before the technology was cheap enough for mass adoption but the timing is far better for PS5. There is the possibility of course that streaming services will render such disc formats obsolete, maybe not by the launch of the console but certainly within its lifespan.
Will the PS5 play the latest 4K Blu-ray format, dump discs altogether, or both?
One solution would be a dual PS5 strategy, maybe not at launch, but at some point in its lifespan. One will have an optical drive, taking both DRM-free games and 4K movies on disc, with games installing to a large hard disc, the same as the PS4 today. This would maintain Sony's strong anti-DRm message that served it so well during the PS4 launch.
The other PS5 would have no drives at all, no disc drive and no hard drive and instead have a modicum of flash memory soldered to its mainboard for storage. Removing two drives from the console would make it far smaller and much cheaper in the long-term as the prices of the main CPU/GPU chip become proportionally less of the total cost. With games being sold digitally, Sony could make far larger profits by cutting out retailers, allowing the console to be sold for even less still.
The economics are so persuasive that a discless console is inevitable, If it can get gamers onside Sony would love to follow Apple into selling exclusively through digital distribution. The big issue is that Sony will have to share the proceeds with the publishers in order to get them to sign up to such a system.
Graphics: VR and 4K gaming
Why? Both PlayStation 4 and Xbox One use similar AMD silicon for their CPUs and GPUs, with these designs being derived from PC architectures. The PC graphics card industry has been a bit tepid of late, big leaps forward come with new, more power efficient manufacturing processes and the move from 28nm to 20nm just didn’t happen, which held everything up.
However, recently AMD has announced its new Polaris architecture based around a 14nm process and that means a big jump forward in terms of performance and power efficiency. That’s big new for consoles coming out in 2019, as the technology will be mature and highly affordable by then, and I expect the PS5 to be based around 14nm chips, probably some kind of refinement of the Polaris tech AMD just announced.
The new technology will allow for more processing power in a smaller, cooler package. Or more likely, far more processing power in a similarly-sized and similarly-power hungry box.
The reason for all that power should be pretty obvious from the title. Any next-generation console needs to be able to create VR visuals at high resolutions with super-smooth frame rates. It will also need to make the most of 4K TVs, with their huge resolutions and HDR features, which means more colour depth and greater contrast.
Now I'm not convinced that all of this will be entirely possible at a rock solid 120/90fps (VR) or 60fps (4K), for a reasonable price, by the time the PS5 has to finalise its hardware in 2018. However it will come close enough (as the current consoles have to 1080p at 60fps) to satisfy most gamers. I don't think that a VR headset will come bundled with the console, but a new headset will likely be launched alongside it and I'd expect compatibility with the original PlayStation VR headset as well.
The jump from 28nm to 16nm will produce a serious hike in graphics power for the PS5
PSN: More competitive gaming
Why? The pro-gaming sector get a lot of attention in the press, it’s still miniscule compared to say any major sport but it’s growing rapidly and Amazon’s purchase of Twitch last year shows just how big streaming and competitive gaming could become.
It’s surprising that despite the current console’s ability to stream gameplay, that Sony hasn’t yet been more pro-active in promoting competitive gaming as part of PlayStation brand, instead leaving developers to developer their own brands in this area.
While it may not affect the hardware design of the console itself, a more competitive section of the PlayStation Network with league games of various titles feeding back into the service as a whole looks to be a strong idea. If Sony can simply provide a structure and APIs for games to talk to the service then it could open up a huge area of hardcore gaming that is currently restricted largely to the PC.
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