Windows 10 will do little to boost Microsoft's fortunes in the tablet market until at least Christmas next year, according to a market analyst. Although CCS Insight predicts tablet sales will double over the next four years, despite sluggish growth in 2014, the analyst firm predicts that Microsoft won't see an immediate return when it launches Windows 10 later this year.
"Microsoft still runs the risk of failing to convert the wide availability of cheaper Windows tablets into strong growth in unit sales before 2017," according to Marina Koytcheva, director of forecasting at CCS Insight. "Windows 10 will take time to make its mark, and developers will need a few months to perfect applications for the new platform. We expect Windows 10 to have little impact on tablet sales before late 2016."
Koytcheva isn't writing off Microsoft's prospects in the tablet market altogether, however. She says the company's decision to waive licence fees for Windows on compact tablets may pay dividends eventually. "We expect Android to continue dominating the low end and mid-range market, with Apple taking the lion's share of the high end. But Windows is gaining a bigger slice of the pie, albeit from a very low level, and should not be overlooked."
"Microsoft's decision to scrap its licence fee for Windows devices under nine inches is a major factor. It has given Windows fresh impetus, as it has spurred manufacturers to produce a better range of devices at a variety of prices — as low as $99 for HP's Stream 7, for example."
Apps remain the biggest barrier to adoption of Windows tablets amongst consumers, according to CCS. The firm says the company will "have to work hard to overcome the limited selection of consumer apps" available in the Windows Store, and warns that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's strategy of delivering Microsoft apps to rival platforms could be harming its tablet sales. "Greater availability of Microsoft services like Office, OneDrive and Skype on rival platforms, especially iOS, will hinder potential adoption of Windows 8," the company warns.
Koytcheva's verdict may be a little premature, with Microsoft yet to reveal exactly what it has planned for tablet users in Windows 10. Although the company released a regularly updated Technical Preview of Windows 10 several months ago, most of the new features that have been added so far have been targeted at PC and laptop users, with the touchscreen features remaining largely, well, untouched.
Microsoft will next week hold a press event to reveal further details of what it has planned for Windows 10. The company will also release a new version of the preview software, which Microsoft has modestly codenamed "Awesome", such is the weight of new features that it's expected to deliver.